Tajikistan has asked Iran for oil and fuel as Ukrainian strikes on refineries disrupt Russian supplies to Central Asia, though analysts question how long any opening for Iranian exports would last.
The request covers 2.55 million tonnes of oil and fuel, made up of 2 million tonnes of crude, 150,000 tonnes of gasoline, 300,000 tonnes of diesel and 100,000 tonnes of jet fuel, OilPrice reported, citing Tajikistan's Transport Ministry. bne IntelliNews gave the same figure, describing it as up to 2.55 million tonnes a year.
No response from the Iranian government or the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) had been reported at the time of writing. No confirmation from Iran of volumes or contracts was found.
The request is not a deal. Headlines from bne IntelliNews and OilPrice say Tajikistan has started taking Iranian oil, but the volumes and dates involved could not be confirmed.
The move comes as Russia struggles with its own fuel shortages. Al Jazeera reported that Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out an estimated quarter to half of Russia's refining capacity. That figure is Al Jazeera's estimate rather than an official number, and no Russian or Ukrainian official comment was captured for this report.
According to Al Jazeera, Russia has imposed fuel rationing and banned exports of petrol and jet fuel. Officials are weighing a ban on diesel exports, and fuel-quality rules have been loosened. The Times of Central Asia reported that Moscow has combined export curbs with imports of petroleum products.
Tajikistan is heavily exposed to the disruption. Russia supplied more than 91 per cent of Tajik petroleum imports in the first half of the year, bne IntelliNews reported.
Galiya Ibragimova of Carnegie Politika told Al Jazeera in an August interview that Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were affected most. "They've been hurt the most," she said. She added that alternative fuel would probably cost more, according to Al Jazeera and the Times of Central Asia.
Other Central Asian countries are looking elsewhere. The Times of Central Asia reported that Kyrgyzstan is arranging supplies from China, while Kazakhstan plans to more than double its refining capacity.
On 12 August, Kanatbek Eshatov, head of Kyrgyzstan's Oil Traders Association, said Russian refineries were offering virtually no additional volumes. He said fuel was arriving from Belarus, Azerbaijan, Turkey and other markets. His comments were reported only by the Times of Central Asia.
Whether Iran can benefit is disputed. Al Jazeera's headline poses the question of whether Russia's fuel crisis has given Iranian oil an opening in the region, and an expert it quoted, identified as Schneider, was doubtful. He said the opportunity for Iran depended on Ukraine continuing to hit Russian refineries, "which seems unlikely".
According to Al Jazeera, Schneider linked this to Ukraine's waning strike capability and to US demands that the attacks stop. Russian fuel would be expected to return once strikes ended or plants were repaired.
Sanctions are a further complication. bne IntelliNews reported that Washington launched what it called "Operation Economic Outcast" on 24 August to cut Iran's remaining revenue. It paraphrased US Treasury spokeswoman Gigi O'Connell as saying that anyone operating in Iran's oil sector bears that risk themselves.
Al Jazeera's introduction to its article says Iran's oil exports have struggled amid a US blockade. The outlet links the story to the wider US-Israel war on Iran, which this report did not examine. The Tehran angle is that Iran's exports have been constrained.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have little domestic oil production and rely heavily on imports, according to the Times of Central Asia. It said Kyrgyzstan's Junda refinery in Kara-Balta is undergoing a $193.75m modernisation.
bne IntelliNews describes Russia's fuel crisis as entering a "third wave". Iran remains under US sanctions, and Tajik buyers of its oil could be exposed to them.
Photo: National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)
