Iran has expelled nearly 1.5 million Afghan migrants this year, while granting legal residency to only half of the six-million strong population. Consequently, Afghan migrants face growing uncertainty as Tehran tightens immigration rules. The policy signals a major shift in the country’s migration approach, affecting millions of lives.
Nader Yarahmadi, head of the Centre for Foreign Nationals and Migrants at Iran’s Interior Ministry, confirmed that 1.456 million Afghans left the country since January. Moreover, speaking at the fourth ministers’ meeting of the Economic Cooperation Organisation, Yarahmadi outlined Tehran’s plan for Afghan migrants. According to the plan, only 50 percent of the population will receive residency permits.
Currently, around 4.5 million Afghans live in Iran, often under difficult conditions. Additionally, Yarahmadi noted that 26 percent of Afghan-led households are headed by women. However, he emphasized that women heading households will not face forced expulsions, allowing voluntary departure in these cases. Authorities say this exception aims to reduce the social and economic burden on vulnerable families.
The large-scale returns have alarmed humanitarian organizations. Experts warn that up to one million additional Afghans could be expelled by the end of the year. Meanwhile, daily repatriations put enormous pressure on Afghanistan’s fragile social and support systems. Consequently, many communities struggle to provide basic services for returning families.
Iranian authorities argue that regulating Afghan migration is necessary to maintain social stability and manage economic pressures. Nevertheless, human rights groups warn that rapid expulsions may create a serious humanitarian crisis. Many Afghans working in informal sectors risk losing livelihoods, further straining both Iran and Afghanistan.
This situation reflects broader regional migration challenges. Afghan migrants have long relied on Iran as a host country, and new restrictions consequently reshape migration patterns. Furthermore, neighboring states monitor developments closely to adjust aid programs and regional security measures.
Looking ahead, Iran plans stricter residency verification and controlled permits. Therefore, the international community urges careful coordination to protect vulnerable populations. Afghan migrants face an uncertain future, making strategic migration planning essential for the region. Ultimately, Tehran’s policies illustrate a delicate balance between domestic needs and humanitarian obligations.