Iran Faces New U.S. Blockade Threat as Brent Crude Swings From Above $119 to Below $92 and Back Past $103

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Strait tensions rise sharply following President Donald Trump’s announcement. The U.S. Navy will enforce a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through this waterway. Global oil prices immediately surged more than 8 percent. Brent crude climbed past $103 a barrel. This marks the first time above $100 since Tuesday. That day, prices briefly traded over $111.

Trump’s threat came just hours after failed talks. Iran and the United States met in Pakistan’s capital. Marathon negotiations ended without any breakthrough. Trump then claimed any ship paying tolls to Iran would face stops in international waters. However, U.S. Central Command later offered a narrower view. It said only vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports would face restrictions. The measure starts Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.

Oil markets have seen dramatic swings recently. U.S.-Israeli military actions prompted Iran to impose its own partial shipping limits. The strait carries roughly 20 percent of global oil and natural gas. The IRGC Navy then made a firm statement. It said the strait will never return to its former state, especially for the US and Israel.

Tehran now allows only friendly nations to pass through. Ships linked to aggressor countries or their supporters cannot use the route. The Iranian parliament also advanced new draft legislation. This law would impose transit fees in national currency. It would explicitly ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from the strait.

Brent crude had reached above $119 last month. But prices then fell below $92 last week. That drop followed a two-week ceasefire agreement. Iran and the United States accepted the truce after more than six weeks of war. The temporary ceasefire remains officially in effect until April 22.

Iran has permitted a small number of pre-approved vessels to transit. Nevertheless, overall movement remains severely limited. Maritime analytics firm Windward reported only 17 ships passed through on Saturday. That compares to an average of roughly 130 daily crossings before the recent military actions.

Energy analysts warn of broader industry risks. A prolonged blockade would disrupt global supply chains. Many countries depend on Hormuz for crude imports. Asian and European markets face the highest exposure. Shipping insurance costs have already started rising.

Political implications also run deep. The blockade threat complicates any future diplomatic talks. Both Iran and the US have shown little flexibility. Tehran continues to enforce its own restrictions. The IRGC Navy maintains a visible presence in the waterway.

Market observers expect continued volatility in the coming weeks. The April 22 ceasefire deadline looms large. If no extension occurs, strait tensions rise once more. Traders will watch for any diplomatic signals. Oil prices currently reflect a fragile balance. Any new military move could trigger another sharp price spike.

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